Interview With Cryptocurrency Analyst Murad Mahmudov

Conor Maloney

November 30, 2018

To get a unique, expert insight into the current state of the cryptocurrency space, CryptoIsComing spoke to Princeton graduate Murad Mahmudov, a cryptocurrency analyst, economist, and angel investor working in crypto.

To begin with, we started with the broad subject of what the true potential of Bitcoin really is.

What potential does Bitcoin have to revolutionize finance or life in general? How big of a difference can Bitcoin make for everyday people?

Bitcoin will restructure the entire world. Its second-and-third-order effects will be profound not only in terms of monetary economics and finance, but also government, culture and even value systems themselves.

Mildly deflationary money-form will cause people to consume slightly less in the short-term, and think longer-term. I believe it will reduce malinvestment and debt. The role of equity relative to credit will increase relative to today.

People will pursue longer-term projects and think years ahead, instead of mere months. I believe Bitcoin will cause not only the realm of money, but many other realms to become fiercely hyper-competitive. I believe the ‘role’ of governments will be slightly reduced, and the ‘role’ of individuals slightly increased.

What are your thoughts on how the next few years in the space will play out?

I believe in the 2019-2023 cycle, BTC will go somewhere around 40x and top sometime between 2022-2024 at ~$130,000. I believe half a dozen of the premium alts will outperform massively. I believe we will see deeper institutionalization of the space, better custody solutions, more Wall St involvement, and, even allocations by very large asset managers.

Are you a maximalist, or do other cryptocurrencies hold promise? Any in particular?

I think BTC should be at least 50-60% of responsible investors’ portfolios at the moment. On a more cynical note, I think even if Bitcoin wins out in the end, a handful of alt-coins will outperform once again in the coming wave. I will be discussing the specifics in greater depth on my blog and my Twitter January 2019 onwards.

What do you think about Bitcoin’s privacy features, and how do you think governments will respond to truly anonymous cryptocurrencies?

Bitcoin’s privacy capabilities will be gradually improving, even though some individuals believe that base layer should remain transparent because otherwise it would jeopardize the credibility of monetary policy. I believe that fully-private cryptocurrencies are ultimately inescapable, despite potential pushbacks from the status-quo system in the short-term.

Will Bitcoin ever be truly anonymous?

I believe Bitcoin’s privacy will gradually improve further to a point where Bitcoin is private enough for the vast majority of users and use-cases.

What unpopular opinion do you have about cryptocurrency?

I believe that its price rise will be predominantly driven by the wealthy / Ultra-High-Net-Worth individuals and savvy funds, *not* by those who actually need it the most.

What are your thoughts on Wall Street institutions entering the space?

Perhaps controversial of me, but we need them to get into the space. Our ultimate goal is for Bitcoin (or whichever dominant cryptocurrency it will be) to become full-fledged money. People prefer their day-to-day cash, i.e. their Medium of Exchange to be relatively price-stable, liquid, etc.

For Bitcoin to become price-stable, its overall size needs to be much bigger. For its overall size to get much bigger, people must elect to park wealth there to continuously drive the price up; For that to happen, it needs to already start to be perceived as a reliable store of value. We need Wall St portfolios to allocate 1-2% of the portfolio to this asset class. We need that to become the norm.

How will futures and ETFs affect Bitcoin?

ETFs will be beneficial for Bitcoin because they wrap a completely new asset class into an old “wrapping” palatable to the old guard. People will be able to get Bitcoin exposure (and as such increase inflows into Bitcoin as a whole) through their 401K, and established asset allocators will be able to get exposure to Bitcoin through their traditional portfolios without worrying about self-custody, insurance, etc.

However, I am more bullish about the impact of ETFs and similar development in the medium- and long-term rather than the immediate term. It will take time for these developments to ‘blossom’, so to speak.

Do you have an opinion on the ongoing Bitcoin Cash hash war?

Bcash is an altcoin, and its forks doubly so. I don’t believe that scaling infinitely onchain is a good idea.

We’re seeing digital money services like M-pesa gain real traction in Africa. Will Bitcoin be adopted in developed or developing world markets first?

I believe it will be adopted in developed countries first, and developing countries second. People in the developed world are generally more open-minded about emerging and cutting-edge technologies and generally have greater access to such developments.

What possible developments could change your supportive stance of Bitcoin?

I hope that, eventually, transacting on the base layer will be available and relatively affordable to everyone (within reason) and not only to huge institutions and Ultra High Net Worth Individuals.

What do you think will happen when the total supply has been mined?

Miners would have to be incentivized exclusively by fees. I believe fees to transact on-chain will grow substantially.

Do you have an opinion on who Satoshi might be, and is it important to discover their identity at some point?

We are all Satoshi 😉

Good Answer! To hear more from Murad Mahmudov, you can check out his crypto blog on Medium or follow him on Twitter @MustStopMurad.

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